Fox News Covers the Egypt Crisis

This one speaks for itself:

What do you expect, it's Fox News.

Enjoy.

UAE Stock Monitor

The pre-opening market activity for Dubai and Abu Dhabi stocks is indicating a sizable drop this morning.

Regional markets are going to be dominated by what's happening in Egypt.  At the moment the focus is on when and how the current president is "relieved of his duties."  But assuming Mubarak does go the focus will then turn to who and what type of government replaces him.  And the answer to that is none to clear at this point in time.

This uncertainty and the potential for more dominoes to fall is going to put pressure on GCC markets and probably global markets as well.

That said, below are some performance stats for UAE stocks based on Thursday's close.  If stocks do end up being whacked today, however, the picture could change substantially.

Enjoy. 

Key:

• Close Price: weekly stock closing price
• Weekly Change:  prior week's percentage stock price change
• Price > 50-Day Moving Average: is the Close Price greater than previous 50-day average price
• Price > 200-Day Moving Average: is the Close Price greater than previous 200-day average price
• Volume > 20-Day Average: is the current volume greater than the previous 20 days average
• Current Price versus 20-Day Range: where is the current price in relation to the previous 20 days

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Unrest in Egypt Spooks Saudi Market

Clearly, the situation in Egypt has made investors in Saudi very nervous.  The Tadawul Index dropped 6.43% today with volume spiking to levels not seen in well over six months.

With such a decisive fall you'd expect the other GCC markets to follow Saudi's lead when they open tomorrow.

Unsurprisingly, the countries in the eye of the storm have seen their stock prices sell-off considerably.  The Egypt 30 Index fell by more than 10% on Thursday alone.

Also, oil futures rose by nearly 5% on Friday. That's the biggest one day rise since September 2009.

In short, the financial markets are nervous about the situation in Middle East and the possibility of further contagion in the region.  Things are moving quickly and no one is sure what will happen next. And as everyone is fond of saying, markets hate uncertainty.

Enjoy.

Saudi Stock Monitor

The tables below show the following for each Saudi stock:

• Close Price: weekly stock closing price
• Weekly Change:  prior week's percentage stock price change
• Price > 50-Day Moving Average: is the Close Price greater than previous 50-day average price
• Price > 200-Day Moving Average: is the Close Price greater than previous 200-day average price
• Volume > 20-Day Average: is the current volume greater than the previous 20 days average
• Current Price versus 20-Day Range: where is the current price in relation to the previous 20 days

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Enjoy.

Aldar on the Edge (Not Any More)

At the beginning of the week I noted how the stock price of Aldar Properties was teetering on the edge, at the 2 dihram level.

Well, it's not any more. The 2 dihram level offered no support and stock fell to a new lifetime low of 1.81 by Thursday's close.  Aldar finished down 11% for the week and is now down 20% since the start of the year (and an eye watering 86% from its 2008 all time high).

Enjoy.

Weekly Market Analysis (Week 5)

The weekly market analysis pages have been updated for trading week 5 (January 29th - February 3rd).  Use the links below to view the individual market analysis pages:

Dubai   -   Abu Dhabi  -   Saudi   -   Kuwait   -   Qatar   -   Bahrain   -   Muscat

The table below shows the market outlook based on each study.

Visit the links above to view the full analysis reports for all GCC markets.

Enjoy.

Aldar on the Edge

How the mighty have fallen.  Aldar Properties joins a steadily increasing list of UAE companies that have required financial assistance. 

But Aldar is significant in that it is the first big Abu Dhabi company to get itself into trouble (from my knowledge, anyway).  We're used to this kind of thing with Dubai companies but Aldar's situation shows that problems exist further afield.

One analyst report I read claimed that Aldar wasn't the subject of a bailout but was just raising funds, like any other company might do.  So, Aldar's a bit like Facebook then.  Just raising a bit of capital

Well, bailout or not, Aldar's stock price is teetering on the edge.  As the chart below shows the current stock price is sitting at the 2 dihrams level.

The two previous times Aldar's share price has visited this level (late 2008 and mid 2010) the stock has rallied. And what about this time? Under the circumstances you would think it's probably going to be a case of third time unlucky. 

What Aldar does could be important to the wider Dubai and Abu Dhabi markets. Aldar is a heavily traded stock and if breaks below the 2 dihram level that could impact sentiment for other stocks.

Time to keep an eye on Aldar, even if don't own it right now.

Enjoy.