GGC Stock Markets Go Oversold

Below are the long-term price and RSI charts for the GCC stock indexes.  With the recent price fall it's not surprising that many markets are now in oversold territory.

In a follow-up post I'll take a look at what these oversold levels mean for the markets going forward.

Enjoy.

February Seasonality

How have GCC stock markets performed during previous February's?

The chart below shows the average daily percentage change for each GCC market during each calendar month.

As you can see, February has tended to be a good month for GCC stocks with all markets showing a positive average daily return.  In fact, from a historical perspective, February through April has been the strongest part of the year for GCC markets.  

Here's hoping this February confirms to historical tendencies.

Enjoy.

P.S.  It should be noted that we're dealing with a very small data set for this analysis.  My data only goes back as far as 2004 for GCC equity markets so there have only been seven prior instances of each calendar month. It's hard to draw any concrete conclusions from such a small data set.

Weekly Market Analysis (Week 4)

The weekly market analysis pages have been updated for trading week 4 (January 22nd - January 27th).  Use the links below to view the individual market analysis pages:

Dubai   -   Abu Dhabi  -   Saudi   -   Kuwait   -   Qatar   -   Bahrain   -   Muscat

The table below shows the market outlook based on each study.

 Visit the links above to view the full analysis reports for all GCC markets.

Enjoy.

Weekly Market Analysis (Week 3)

The weekly market analysis pages have been updated for trading week 3 (January 14th - January 20th).  Use the links below to view the individual market analysis pages:

Dubai   -   Abu Dhabi  -   Saudi   -   Kuwait   -   Qatar   -   Bahrain   -   Muscat

The table below shows the market outlook based on each study.

Visit the links above to view the full analysis reports for all GCC markets.

Enjoy.

GCC Market Breadth Performance Review

This is the second in a series of posts evaluating the performance of the studies presented in the weekly market analysis report (see first post here).

This post will look at the performance of the market breadth analysis.  Market breadth is measured using the 20-day advance/decline indicator.  When the advance/decline indicator is greater than zero this tells us that more stocks have risen in price than fallen.  When the indicator is less than zero more stocks have declined in value. (See the following post for more details on this indicator and how it is calculated: Part I, Part II and Part III)

On the charts below I've highlighted the market breadth for each GCC Index from August to December 2010.  The green shaded areas denote periods when market breadth was positive and red shaded areas are the negative breadth periods.

I think it's fair to say that the charts above show that the market breadth analysis has done a pretty good job of identifying bullish and bearish periods.
Here are the actual performance figures:

Under positive market breadth (first column) GCC markets have tended to perform strongly, much more so than when breadth was negative (second column).

For example, under positive market breadth the DFM General Index returned +21.79% whilst the Index lost -9.40% during negative breadth periods.

The performance during positive market breadth periods beat total index returns (third column) for 5 out of the 7 GCC markets. 

In conclusion, as with the trend analysis I reviewed in the last post, market breadth has performed very well over the past 5 months.  For all GCC markets positive breadth has been associated with rising index levels whilst negative breadth has been associated with falling for flat index levels.

Enjoy.

Weekly Market Analysis (Week 2)

The weekly market analysis pages have been updated for trading week 2 (January 8th - January 13th).  Use the links below to view the individual market analysis pages:

Dubai   -   Abu Dhabi  -   Saudi   -   Kuwait   -   Qatar   -   Bahrain   -   Muscat

The table below shows the market outlook based on each study.

Visit the links above to view the full analysis reports for all GCC markets.

Enjoy.

January Seasonality

How have GCC stock markets performed during previous January's?

The chart below shows the average daily percentage change for each GCC market during each calendar month.

As you can see, for most GCC markets January has been slightly bearish in previous years. 

[ Click to enlarge ]

Enjoy.

Weekly Market Analysis (Week 1)

The weekly market analysis pages have been updated for trading week 1 (January 2nd - January 6th).  Use the links below to view the individual market analysis pages:

Dubai   -   Abu Dhabi  -   Saudi   -   Kuwait   -   Qatar   -   Bahrain   -   Muscat

The table below shows the market outlook based on each study.

Visit the links above to view the full analysis reports for all GCC markets.

Enjoy.

And The Winner Is......

Today was the final trading session on the year for GCC markets.  The Qatar market was the big winner this year, rising by almost 25%.  Saudi and Muscat managed to eek out modest gains whilst Kuwait, Abu Dhabi and Bahrain finished slightly in the red for the year.

The big under-performer in 2010 was the Dubai market which fell 9.60%. 

[ Click to enlarge ]

Enjoy.

GCC Indices: Year-to-Date Performances

As the chart below shows, the Qatar market is way out front with just one month of the year remaining.  With a current year-to-date return of 17% the QE Index is outperforming the other GCC markets by some margin.

Now that Qatar has won the bid to host the 2022 World Cup it will be interesting to see how that market finishes the year.

After its recent surge the Dubai market fell back during November and will have to put in a strong performance in December to having any chance of achieving a positive return for 2010.  For the other markets it will be a photo finish to see who finishes in the black or red this year.

Enjoy.

GCC Indices: YTD Performances

The chart below shows the year-to-date percentage returns for each GCC Index (as of October 31st).  Apart from the DFM General Index all other markets are now positive for the year.  Qatar is clearly the stand out performer, rising 12% so far this year and significantly outperforming the other indices.

Despite being the best performer over the last couple of months the DFM General Index is still the weakest performer year-to-date. At -2.16% it is also the only GCC index that is still down for the year.

The remaining indices have managed to eek out small positive gains.  However, with two months still remaining it's difficult to predict whether 2010 will be a positive or negative year for the regional markets.  Watch this space.

Enjoy.

Weekly Market Analysis (Week 44)

The weekly market analysis pages have been updated for trading week 44 (October 23rd - October 28th).  Use the links below to view the individual market analysis pages:

Dubai   -   Abu Dhabi  -   Saudi   -   Kuwait   -   Qatar   -   Bahrain   -   Muscat

The table below shows the market outlook based on each study. 

The outlook for the Dubai market moves bearish this week after several weeks of positive price movement.  However, the Abu Dhabi market remains bullish across all studies, as does the Muscat market.

After last week's 1.15% fall the outlook for Saudi stock market remains on the bearish side.

Visit the links above to view the full anaysis reports for all GCC markets.

Enjoy.

Dubai Market Plays Catch-Up in September

As briefly mentioned in the Monthly Index Review post, the DFM General Index was by far the best performer in September.  However, as shown in the chart below, September was very much a case of Dubai playing catch-up with the other GCC indices.

Dubai's still the worst performing GCC index this year but at least the +13.48% rise in September brought it back into the pack, so to speak.

Qatar is the best performer so far this year, gaining +10.57%.  That's below it's highest point this year, though, which was set back in mid April when the Index was up +12.10%.

Enjoy.

Weekly GCC Index Analysis (Week 41)

All GCC indices are now trading above their 20-day, 50-day and 100-day moving averages confirming the positive price moves seen over the past couple of weeks.

Currently, the Kuwait Index is showing particular strength.  Historically, when the Index has been in a similar position, the following 5 day change has been positive over 80% of the time with an average gain of 1.82%.

The outlook for all other indices is positive with the exception of the ADX Index and the Bahrain Index which are neutral.

Enjoy.

Weekly GCC Index Analysis (Week 39)

No notable changes from last week.  Aside from the Muscat 30 Index all other indices are now trading above their 20, 50 and 100-day moving averages.

Enjoy.

Weekly GCC Index Analysis (Week 38)

All market indices are now trading above their respective 20-day and 50-day moving averages.  That's means the 5 day outlook for most markets is now bullish.

Enjoy.

Weekly GCC Index Analysis (Week 37)

Both the GCC Index Analysis and the GCC Trend Analysis are in agreement this week on the outlook for each market: DFM/ADX = Bearish, Saudi/Oman = Neutral, Kuwait/Bahrain/Qatar = Bullish (especially Qatar).

Weekly Index Analysis for week ending 2nd September 2010 (1st September 2010 for Saudi Tadawul Index).

Enjoy.