Weekly Market Winners & Losers

Another good week for GCC equity markets with six of the seven regional indices moving higher. The DFM General Index moves back into pole position with a +1.90% increase over the week.

Kuwait, Saudi and the QE Index also rose by 1% or more this week with Bahrain the only index to fall in value.

Weekly Price Performance

The Muscat market was the biggest volume gainer last week, increasing by 117% from the previous week.

Weekly Volume Performance

(versus previous week's volume)

 Enjoy.

Weekly Market Analysis (Week 45)

The weekly market analysis pages have been updated for trading week 45 (October 30th - November 4th).  Use the links below to view the individual market analysis pages:

Dubai   -   Abu Dhabi  -   Saudi   -   Kuwait   -   Qatar   -   Bahrain   -   Muscat

The table below shows the market outlook based on each study. 

Following the bearish indications last week the Dubai market moves back to a full-on bullish outlook this week.  Meanwhile, Abu Dhabi maintains its across the board bullish outlook.

Saudi is still the weakest of the GCC markets but its outlook is much improved from last week.

Visit the links above to view the full analysis reports for all GCC markets.

Enjoy.

Weekly Market Winners & Losers

The Abu Dhabi Index continued its impressive recent form with a +1.77% rise this week.  The biggest fallers were the QE Index (-1.19%) and the Saudi Tadawul Index (-1.15%).

Weekly Price Performance

On the volume front, the QE Index had the biggest volume gain compared to the previous week, increasing by 34%.  Most other indices saw volume decreases last week with the DFM General Index volume falling by 54%. 

 

Weekly Volume Performance

(versus previous week's volume)

Enjoy.

Weekly Market Analysis (Week 44)

The weekly market analysis pages have been updated for trading week 44 (October 23rd - October 28th).  Use the links below to view the individual market analysis pages:

Dubai   -   Abu Dhabi  -   Saudi   -   Kuwait   -   Qatar   -   Bahrain   -   Muscat

The table below shows the market outlook based on each study. 

The outlook for the Dubai market moves bearish this week after several weeks of positive price movement.  However, the Abu Dhabi market remains bullish across all studies, as does the Muscat market.

After last week's 1.15% fall the outlook for Saudi stock market remains on the bearish side.

Visit the links above to view the full anaysis reports for all GCC markets.

Enjoy.

What's On My Financial Radar

GCC Market Analytics is primarily focused on Gulf equity markets.  Occasionally, however, it's a good idea to take a broader look at what's happening in the world.  Below are some of the things that have appeared on my financial radar over the past week or so.

1.) Foreclosure Mess in the US

You know something's serious when a new term is coined to refer to it: Fraudclosure.  The emerging mortgage foreclosure debacle in the U.S. has the potential to get very bad, very quickly.  If you're not yet familiar with this subject I suggest you read this primer.

If there is a significant slowdown in the foreclosure process (Bank of America has already halted foreclosures in all fifty states) then that's bad news for the housing market, bank revenues and potentially their bottom lines.

However, it gets worse.  Other issues connected to the foreclosure problem are also emerging.  For example, check out this Felix Salmon article.  Should anything close to this come about 2011 could see these part two of the subprime crisis.

2.) QE2

Ben Bernake looks set to crank up his money printing machine again.  The big question, however, is how much money will be printed.  This article makes the case that consensus market expectations on the size of QE2 may be far higher that what the Fed is actually planning. 

If consensus expectations are currently being priced into the markets and the Fed action falls short of them then QE2 may not be the big party that everyone is hoping for.

3.)  Sliding US Dollar

Down 13% since the June high, it looks like the prospect of QE2 is being priced into the US Dollar as well.  However, should QE2 not meet expectations this fall may prove to be overdone, at least in the short-term.

There's a lot ot talk about competitive devaluation and the possibility of a currency war (see here for example).   A sliding dollar may beneficial to the US but it's at the expense of someone else's share of world trade.

4.)  China now in a bull market (again)

Better news for China equities.  After falling 30% following the market top in July 2009 the Shanghai Composite Index has now rebounded by 25%.  That's bull market territory.

Enjoy.

Weekly Market Winners & Losers

Most GCC markets continued their recent price rises last week.  The stand out performers were Abu Dhabi (+2.73%) and Dubai (+1.40%).  Saudi was the only market to decline last week, falling -1.79%.

Weekly Price Performance

The biggest volume gainers compared to the previous week were Abu Dhabi (+280%) and Muscat +259%).  The biggest volume fallers were the Qatar (-44%) and Bahrain (-26%) markets.

Weekly Volume Performance

(versus previous week's volume)

Enjoy.

Weekly Market Analysis (Week 43)

The weekly market analysis pages have been updated for trading week 43 (October 16th - October 22nd).  Use the links below to view the individual market analysis pages:

Dubai   -   Abu Dhabi  -   Saudi   -   Kuwait   -   Qatar   -   Bahrain   -   Muscat

The table below shows the market outlook based on each study.  The market with the most bullish outlook this coming week is Muscat where all studies are indicating higher prices.

Saudi, on the other hand, has the weakest market outlook with all studies suggesting lower levels this week.

Visit the links above to view the full anaysis reports for all GCC markets.

Enjoy.

Announcement: Changes to GCC Market Analytics

This is a brief post to notify readers about a couple of recent changes to the GCC Market Analytics website.

Firstly, a number of readers have contacted me regarding the lack of information on the "About" page.  It's been on my to-do list for some time but I've finally got around to completing it.  For people that like to know such things the "About" page now has my contact details and a link to my Linked In profile page where you can find more information about me.

Secondly, and more significantly, I've made some changes to the way the various weekly analysis reports are distributed.  At present there are four studies that I update and post on a weekly basis: Trend Analysis, Index Analysis, Market Breadth and Pattern Match Price Projections.  Having individual posts for each study was fine initially but I think now's the time to change things slightly in order to ensure a better and more useful experience for readers.

So, rather than have individual posts for each study type I've decided to aggregate the weekly studies by market.  Recent visitors to the website may have already noticed the new options on the menu bar at the top of each page. 

Each GCC market now has its own page.  Each page contains the weekly studies that relate specifically to that market.  For example the "Dubai" page contains the Trend Analysis, Index Analysis, Market Breadth Analysis and Pattern Match Price Projection studies relating to the DFM General Index.

Every week I'll update the studies for each market.  In addition to this I'll provide an overview post which will highlight the the market outlook for each study.

Structuring the website in this manner will hopefully make it easier for me to update on a weekly basis and for readers to understand and make use of. 

Future Plans

Whilst the GCC Market Analytics website has been getting up and running I've mainly focused on market level analysis and studies. Soon, however, I hope to provide stock level analysis. Knowing what the overall market is likely to do is a distinct advantage but it's the decisions made at stock level that greatly determine success or failure.  Look out for some stock level analysis and trading strategies in the coming weeks.

Anyway, that's all for now. As always, any comments or suggestions are always welcome.

Enjoy.

Weekly GCC Trend Analysis (Week 42)

The DFM General Index moves back to a Bullish outlook this week and Saudi moves from Bearish to Neutral. 

All other indices have a Very Bullish outlook, particularly Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Muscat where the all three trend lengths are rising.

Enjoy.

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Notes:
1. In the  "Current Trend Conditions" section the short-term, medium-term and long-term trend values are determined by dual moving averages.  The trend value is "Up" when the the shorter length moving average is greater the longer length moving average. The trend value is "Down" when the the shorter length moving average is less then the longer length moving average. For more information on dual moving averages see previous post here.
2. Dual moving average parameters are specific to each index and time-frame (short, medium and long)

3.  The "Outlook" value can be "Very Bullish," "Bullish," "Neutral," "Bearish" or "Very Bearish."  The value is determined by the historical performance of the index when the same short, medium and long-term trend conditions were in evidence in the past.

4. The top chart shows a plot of the historical price performance of the index.  Highlighted on the chart are the past periods when the current trend conditions were in evidence in the past

5.  The bottom chart shows the non-compounded percentage returns of the index when the current trend condition were in evidence in the past. 

October Seasonality: Market Headwinds

After the across the board market gains in September what can we look forward to in October?  Well, based on hisrotical market performance the next couple of months have tended to be the weakest of the year.

The chart below shows the average daily perentage change for each GCC market during each calendar month.  As you can see, October and November are the worst performing months of the year.

After September's strong gains it will be interesting to see if the markets can overcome this seasonal tendency.

Enjoy.

Enjoy.

Weekly Market Breadth Analysis (Week 41)

Both the Saudi and Kuwait markets slipped into negative breadth territory at the end of last week.  The other GCC markets maintain their positive breadth and bullish outlook.

To find out how each individual GCC market has performed during periods of positive and negative market breadth please refer to this previous post.

Enjoy.

Dubai Market Plays Catch-Up in September

As briefly mentioned in the Monthly Index Review post, the DFM General Index was by far the best performer in September.  However, as shown in the chart below, September was very much a case of Dubai playing catch-up with the other GCC indices.

Dubai's still the worst performing GCC index this year but at least the +13.48% rise in September brought it back into the pack, so to speak.

Qatar is the best performer so far this year, gaining +10.57%.  That's below it's highest point this year, though, which was set back in mid April when the Index was up +12.10%.

Enjoy.

September GCC Index Review

All GCC indices rose in value during September. However, the DFM General Index was the stand out performer, rising 13.48% over the month.

This was probably a case of the DFM General Index playing catch up with the other GCC indices.  Going into September the Index was down 18% for the year, almost twice as much as the next worst performing index.  Dubai is still the worst performing Index so far this year but is now down only 6.65%.

On the volume front the Dubai market was also the leader in September with a +175% increase in shares traded compared to the previous month.  However, in absolute terms the volume in Dubai during September was not significant.  In fact, the monthly volume was only the fifth highest month so far this year.

Enjoy.

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September Large Cap Monitor

September was a good month for GCC markets with 33 of the 35 large capitalisation stocks monitored rising in value during September.

The best large cap performers were Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank (+37%) and Kuwait's Gulf Insurance (+32%). The only large cap decliner in September was Bahrain's Albaraka Banking Group (-0.67%)

Enjoy.

Weekly GCC Index Analysis (Week 41)

All GCC indices are now trading above their 20-day, 50-day and 100-day moving averages confirming the positive price moves seen over the past couple of weeks.

Currently, the Kuwait Index is showing particular strength.  Historically, when the Index has been in a similar position, the following 5 day change has been positive over 80% of the time with an average gain of 1.82%.

The outlook for all other indices is positive with the exception of the ADX Index and the Bahrain Index which are neutral.

Enjoy.

Weekly GCC Trend Analysis (Week 41)

The DFM General Index moves back to a Neutral outlook this week whilst the ADX Index continues to be Very Bullish.

The Saudi Tadawul Index slips to Bearish from Neutral and the trend conditions in both the Kuwait and Bahrain markets have moved into their most bullish phases.

The outlook for the QE Index and Muscat 30 Index continues to be Very Bullish.

Enjoy.

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Notes:
1. In the  "Current Trend Conditions" section the short-term, medium-term and long-term trend values are determined by dual moving averages.  The trend value is "Up" when the the shorter length moving average is greater the longer length moving average. The trend value is "Down" when the the shorter length moving average is less then the longer length moving average. For more information on dual moving averages see previous post here.
2. Dual moving average parameters are specific to each index and time-frame (short, medium and long)

3.  The "Outlook" value can be "Very Bullish," "Bullish," "Neutral," "Bearish" or "Very Bearish."  The value is determined by the historical performance of the index when the same short, medium and long-term trend conditions were in evidence in the past.

4. The top chart shows a plot of the historical price performance of the index.  Highlighted on the chart are the past periods when the current trend conditions were in evidence in the past

5.  The bottom chart shows the non-compounded percentage returns of the index when the current trend condition were in evidence in the past.