October Seasonality: Market Headwinds

After the across the board market gains in September what can we look forward to in October?  Well, based on hisrotical market performance the next couple of months have tended to be the weakest of the year.

The chart below shows the average daily perentage change for each GCC market during each calendar month.  As you can see, October and November are the worst performing months of the year.

After September's strong gains it will be interesting to see if the markets can overcome this seasonal tendency.

Enjoy.

Enjoy.

Weekly Market Breadth Analysis (Week 41)

Both the Saudi and Kuwait markets slipped into negative breadth territory at the end of last week.  The other GCC markets maintain their positive breadth and bullish outlook.

To find out how each individual GCC market has performed during periods of positive and negative market breadth please refer to this previous post.

Enjoy.

Dubai Market Plays Catch-Up in September

As briefly mentioned in the Monthly Index Review post, the DFM General Index was by far the best performer in September.  However, as shown in the chart below, September was very much a case of Dubai playing catch-up with the other GCC indices.

Dubai's still the worst performing GCC index this year but at least the +13.48% rise in September brought it back into the pack, so to speak.

Qatar is the best performer so far this year, gaining +10.57%.  That's below it's highest point this year, though, which was set back in mid April when the Index was up +12.10%.

Enjoy.

September GCC Index Review

All GCC indices rose in value during September. However, the DFM General Index was the stand out performer, rising 13.48% over the month.

This was probably a case of the DFM General Index playing catch up with the other GCC indices.  Going into September the Index was down 18% for the year, almost twice as much as the next worst performing index.  Dubai is still the worst performing Index so far this year but is now down only 6.65%.

On the volume front the Dubai market was also the leader in September with a +175% increase in shares traded compared to the previous month.  However, in absolute terms the volume in Dubai during September was not significant.  In fact, the monthly volume was only the fifth highest month so far this year.

Enjoy.

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September Large Cap Monitor

September was a good month for GCC markets with 33 of the 35 large capitalisation stocks monitored rising in value during September.

The best large cap performers were Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank (+37%) and Kuwait's Gulf Insurance (+32%). The only large cap decliner in September was Bahrain's Albaraka Banking Group (-0.67%)

Enjoy.

Weekly GCC Index Analysis (Week 41)

All GCC indices are now trading above their 20-day, 50-day and 100-day moving averages confirming the positive price moves seen over the past couple of weeks.

Currently, the Kuwait Index is showing particular strength.  Historically, when the Index has been in a similar position, the following 5 day change has been positive over 80% of the time with an average gain of 1.82%.

The outlook for all other indices is positive with the exception of the ADX Index and the Bahrain Index which are neutral.

Enjoy.

Weekly GCC Trend Analysis (Week 41)

The DFM General Index moves back to a Neutral outlook this week whilst the ADX Index continues to be Very Bullish.

The Saudi Tadawul Index slips to Bearish from Neutral and the trend conditions in both the Kuwait and Bahrain markets have moved into their most bullish phases.

The outlook for the QE Index and Muscat 30 Index continues to be Very Bullish.

Enjoy.

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Notes:
1. In the  "Current Trend Conditions" section the short-term, medium-term and long-term trend values are determined by dual moving averages.  The trend value is "Up" when the the shorter length moving average is greater the longer length moving average. The trend value is "Down" when the the shorter length moving average is less then the longer length moving average. For more information on dual moving averages see previous post here.
2. Dual moving average parameters are specific to each index and time-frame (short, medium and long)

3.  The "Outlook" value can be "Very Bullish," "Bullish," "Neutral," "Bearish" or "Very Bearish."  The value is determined by the historical performance of the index when the same short, medium and long-term trend conditions were in evidence in the past.

4. The top chart shows a plot of the historical price performance of the index.  Highlighted on the chart are the past periods when the current trend conditions were in evidence in the past

5.  The bottom chart shows the non-compounded percentage returns of the index when the current trend condition were in evidence in the past.